If you think you are confused on political issues in your own country, you will undoubtedly go mad trying to figure out Peruvian politics. To understand the present scenario, you have to go back 20 years.
In the early 80´s, a young man called Alan Garcia returned from Paris, where he received his final grooming as a lawyer and future politician. He had been the fair haired boy of the founder of the APRA party, Raul Haya de La Torre, who for almost 70 years was unable to participate in the government due to fierce opposition by the military. Alan ran for congressman and served APRA well during the Belaunde government of 1980-85. Out of sympathy for the years of having been ostracized from the political scene, and with Haya having presided congress during this period, the public was willing to finally give APRA a chance to govern. Alan was the perfect candidate.
Alan had a sort of Kennedy image.. He had been successful as a congressman, was young, tall, and handsome, played the guitar, and sang Mexican and Peruvian songs. At only 35 years of age, he ran and became the youngest president in Peru’s history. The shine lasted a year. After a brilliant start, he and his followers went on a rampage of inflation and spending that lead to international isolation and near bankruptcy. The traditional Sol currency had to be changed to the Inti, and by the time he ended his term, Peru had suffered a world record: 2.2 million percent inflation in five years. The local Federal Reserve had a deficit of 150 million dollars, and the fierce terrorist movement, Shining Path, was raising havoc in the central Andes.
Alan was succeeded by Alberto Fujimori, was persecuted and obliged to flee to Colombia and eventually to Paris where he settled with his family to contemplate his mistakes and his future. Ten years later, when Alejandro Toledo was running for office, Alan reappeared, and despite a bad record and a long absence, came close to winning in the primaries. Meanwhile, Toledo won the election and enjoyed five years of record economic progress while building on the success of Fujimori´s first term. When it came time for elections in 2006, Alan was again back in country with a brand, new image.
His competition this time was Lourdes Flores, a young professional politician bred in the Christian Democratic party and who had a good following in the highly populated Lima area, and Ollanta Humala, a young hot blooded ex-Army officer who had a dubious reputation as a commander in the jungle during the Shining Path days, but who quickly picked up on the restlessness of the masses in the Andes and provinces who were not impressed by Toledo´s economic success, since it never reached them.
After a fierce first round with 23 different parties contending, it boiled down to Humala, Lourdes, and Alan. At the end of the day, and during preliminary elections, Alan beat Lourdes Flores by less than 1% and went on to battle Humala. Humala alleged Alan couldn’t be trusted after his horrible previous government, and Alan claimed Humala was just a puppet for Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Alan, with a more mature public manner and a young voting audience that had no recollection as to what it was like to live under his first regime, won the presidential election by a slim 5% of the vote.
One year has passed since Alan Garcia has once again assumed the presidency. He has been humble enough to admit his earlier mistakes and promises to carry out vital changes. He has inherited one of the strongest economies in Peru’s history and despite the scepticism of the old timers, the economy under Alan has grown almost 8%. Private sector investments exceed 24 billion dollars and exports of minerals as well as agricultural products and manufactured goods are booming. Tourism is growing, and employment has increased 6.5%. Construction of new dwellings, especially for the working classes, is at a record high, and retail sales are soaring.
Why is it then that Alan’s popularity rate has dropped from 62% shortly after the election to 32% today? Will he hit Toledo´s bottom out figure of 16% which he suffered near the end of the latter’s regime despite the overall economic boom?
The answer lies in his ability to implement drastically needed development of education, infrastructure, and investment, especially in the provinces. Peru has been Lima to too long, and now that regional governments have finally been created to decentralize the country, there is a desperate cry for development, better education, health care and employment. Unfortunately, this cannot be accomplished overnight. His arch enemy, Ollanta Humala, is taking advantage of this delay by rekindling the coals of discontent that almost put him in the government palace. It is also rumoured that he continues to receive the support of Hugo Chavez. APRA lost most of the regional elections and many of the leaders there form opposition to the central government. They appear more interested in dirty politics than in badly needed development.
As to education, Alan`s serious attempt to reform Peru’s decadent school system has run up against SUTEP, the teacher’s union, determined to railroad any attempt to reform the system and qualify the teachers. In a recent nationwide exam, over 100,000 teachers failed to pass a very basic exam and face dismissal. A new bill was just passed to give new support to qualified teachers with pay incentives, but the union is reluctant to accept. As a result, they are out on the streets across the country, supported by the CGTP, the workers syndicate, and Mr. Humala and some of the old diehard leftist leaders are right there with him inciting violence and even the overthrow of the Garcia government for not having lived up to campaign promises.
Peru has a lot going for it at the moment. The economy continues to boom. Last year, Lima´s stock market was a world leader with a 160% growth rate. Prices of minerals, Peru´s No. 1 export, continue strong and the currency is one of the strongest on the market. Peru now hosts the largest mining operation in the world, Antamina, and there are over 11 billion dollars in new investments awaiting proper conditions. Machu Picchu was just declared one of the 7 Wonders of the World, and tourism offers great opportunities for employment and income. There are several billion dollars in development funds coming from mining profit sharing in mining areas in the needy provinces, but lack of know-how amongst new regional leaders has hindered its investment to date.
The Garcia government has shown positive signs of good intentions. Responsibilities have been shared in a multi-partisan fashion. There is no one with a greater interest in overcoming a dark past to show that APRA has learned its lesson and can truly take advantage of the economic boom and share the wealth with the majority that have been waiting so long for better conditions. These coming months will be critical for the Garcia government, especially for Alan, who likes to assume full leadership and responsibility for management. We who live here certainly hope he can meet the challenge.
