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Odds & Ends
Peru's First-Round Election Results - Never a Dull Moment
By Jim Plunkett
(Our intrepid political correspondent reports his views on the current political situation in Peru)

April 9th brought 16 million people to the polls to choose a new president and 120 congressmen for the next five years. According to the foreign observers from the European Union and the Organization of American States, it was very professionally done and above suspicion of any wrongdoing whatsoever, a true democratic process.

The majority of the voters are poor. 51% of the Peruvians live in poverty, and 27% in extreme poverty, and not only did they want someone who could help them, but they wanted to avoid a fine of $35 dollars for not voting. Many voters who reside in Lima that are from cities and areas in the provinces and who haven't changed their domicile were obliged to take a bus back home and vote. In some cases, they would have been better off paying the fine.

Ollanta Humala, the young 42 year old former Army colonel, led the pack of over 21 presidential candidates. With 90% of the votes scrutinized, he has 31%, Alan Garcia, 24%, and Lourdes Flores, 23%. Fourth was former President Fujimori´s party with about 7.7%, followed by another former president who replaced Fujimori, Valentín Paniagua with 5.7%, and then an unknown to most of us, Humberto Lay, a second generation Chinese who is the head of the Evangelical movement in Peru. Despite a last minute campaign, Lay had over 4.3% of the votes and won about five seats in Congress. The fact that 15% of the population is now Evangelical means he can be influential in the second round as well as have a good voice in Congress. Many of the old traditional congressmen who ran for president lost along with their congressional candidates, when they didn't make the minimum of 4% required.

According to the electoral rules, if no one candidate gets over 50% of the votes, it automatically goes into a second round with the top two candidates. At press time, with the proximity of Lourdes Flores to Alan Garcia, there is still a doubt. The computer for differences in the count between voters and results has discarded some 7,100 electoral acts, and each and every one must be reviewed and re-entered into the software to be added to the confirmed votes. This can take time. The votes by Peruvians overseas are also being calculated and add to the tension.

Humala had the best campaign. He appealed to the vast majority with his young, military cut, sharp criticism of the rich, the international contracts on natural gas, the Free Trade Agreement with the U.S., and the aggressiveness of the press which had been all over him since he started. The more they criticized him, the more the people supported him. “Poor Humala. They are picking on our man.” The vast majority of Humala supporters have no idea about his background. To them he represents someone opposed to the corrupt system, the fat salaries of the president ($18,000 a month), and the congressmen ($10,000), and the fact they haven't seen any more opportunities to improve their lives.

Alan was well behind Lourdes until the home stretch, and then started climbing. Lourdes started slipping at the same time, and at press time was about 100,000 votes behind him. Alan is implying victory; Lourdes says that amongst the 7,100 acts to be scrutinized, many of them are hers, since most are from the greater Lima area where she is popular.

Alan's followers are twofold. First are the APRA party members, the majority of whom stem from parents and grandparents that have been members or followers for years. The others, young voters impressed by his style, smooth talk and offers who were too young in 1985-1990 to suffer from the effects of the 2.2 million percent inflation, cueing for sugar, rice, and bread, and the unemployment. They all see him as the new Alan, reformed, repentant and much more knowledgeable, incapable of making the same mistakes twice. He is a formidable public speaker and makes a good presentation.

Lourdes has been working on her campaign for over two years, visiting the smallest of towns and the largest of cities, appealing to the mothers, the little merchants, and the young people. She has many years of political experience, ran against Alan in 2001 and lost by a narrow margin like now, and has an impeccable political and moral record.

Mudslinging has been the order of the day. Humala criticized Alan for a disastrous government, Lourdes for being a representative of the bankers and big business interests, and Alan followed along with the same accusation against Lourdes. He accused Humala of wanting to be another dictator with the fascist ideas of his family, and predicted Peru would be set back decades under such a leader.

Most outstanding during the campaign was the onslaught of criticism against Humala, especially when he threatened to censure the press. The media owners were silenced during Velasco´s government, and many were forced to leave Peru. Humala also promised to scrutinize the existing contracts with foreign investors, and to make sure the government runs the oil business, gas, and even the waterworks, which badly needs capital for expansion. He doesn't think the Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. is good for Peru, and today criticized Toledo for going ahead and signing it in Washington instead of waiting for the new president and his cabinet to take office.

What the uneducated and poorly informed voters have not bothered to examine to date is the latest evidence popping up in regards to their candidate, Humala. His famous folkloric rebellion in the southern Andes took place the day Montesinos, Fujimori´s Black Hand, was fleeing the country in a hired yacht. Supposedly there is proof that Montesinos made two calls to Humala the same day, probably signals to start the rebellion and distract the attention of the public and the authorities to facilitate his escape to the Galapagos and then Venezuela.

It has also come to light that an Army general named Bardales, who was supposedly kidnapped during the rebellion, was part of the plot. The young driver of the car that Humala and the General used testified to the press that the general was on the best of terms with Humala, and that there was no such thing as a kidnapping.

It has also been revealed by military sources that during the dirty presidential campaign staged by Montesinos in 2000 to re-elect Fujimori for another five years, Humala was mysteriously ordered to Arequipa in the southern Andes to help with the rigging of the votes. In recent weeks, three persons who were close collaborators of Montesinos were identified in the Humala campaign staff, and a candidate for congress under Humala resigned when he was told to go for an interview with Oscar López, a very close former advisor of Montesinos who is in prison awaiting trial.

In addition to all this, President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, with his appetite to “unite” Latin America as a Simón Bolívar, started promoting Humala for president in Peru. He invited Humala and Evo Morales, Bolivia´s new president, to Caracas prior to Bolivian elections, and praised both candidates as the men required to unite the Americans. He has publicly criticized the electoral process, and also accuses Lourdes of being a puppet of the rich. Toledo and other area leaders have warned Chávez to stay out of neighborhood affairs and mind his own business.

During the voting, Humala was registered at a local university called Ricardo Palma, in an upper middle class area. When he arrived with his wife and a group of bodyguards, people started shouting “assassin,” referring to the accusations of having committed atrocities while commander of an anti-terrorist post in the jungle in 1992. Humala responded with a “V” for victory, and “Humala Presidente!” A TV crew closely filmed one of his supposed bodyguards, who turned out to be a guy Chávez uses for his own “electoral” processes in Venezuela.

As to the run-offs, which will take place in late May or early June, at this point it is still up in the air between Alan and Lourdes, as to who will compete against Humala. When it is decided who will be his competitor, another fierce campaign will take place. I really don't see any possibility for Humala at this point, since he didn't get the landslide first round victory he expected. If the 31% that supported him continue to do so in the second vote, there are approximately 55% or more that don't want him as president. 10% of the voters voted in blank, and there is always a percentage that is voided for incorrect procedure.

According to public opinion, most of those from parties that didn't qualify will support whoever runs against Humala. Those who are disappointed or disgusted to see that Alan Garcia would be competing against Humala will vote for him anyway, hoping he has matured.

If, by chance, Lourdes were to compete and win, she would have the largest support of any candidate once elected, since she is a woman, she has a strong character, and she would at least be given an opportunity to execute her plan of action. Her position on private investment, the Free Trade Agreement, and privatization of inefficient public enterprises would also receive staunch support from the educated sector.

As to Alan, if he were to win, it is doubtful he would think of implementing any of his old policies like limiting the payment of foreign debt to the World Bank and the IMF to 10% of Peru's export sales, or devaluating the currency. He has been haunted by local and international criticism ever since his horrific government in the late 80s, and being a haughty individual with a great deal of personal pride, it is doubtful he would expose himself to another gross failure. If he were smart, he would pick up on the success of the Toledo government by showing continuity in economic development while implementing programs to improve life in the provinces and assuring that the regional governments carry out investments that are badly needed to reduce poverty.

Despite our calculations and predictions, we will not rest at ease until the 28th of July, when Toledo places his sash of authority over the head of the new president of Peru.

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